Fine with a chance of rain…. getting the weather forecast right

Weatherman-Michael-Fish-001

In a culture obsessed by weather we are constantly complaining – it’s too hot, it’s too cold, it’s too wet, or it’s too dry. Many suffer through winter waiting for summer and an equal number do the opposite while we identify favourite seasons and talk about being ‘summer people’ or ‘winter people’.

When we are all sweltering in the discomfort of a heatwave (and we certainly do that well in South Australia) we cling to the weather forecast looking for psychological comfort… just knowing there is a cool change on the way (even if somewhat distantly) brings instant relief. Recent online access to weather observations as they are occurring across the state and nation, allow us to spend an even greater amount of time and energy indulging in an almost religous meteorological fervour tracking the temperature, rainfall or stormfront but not really understanding a great deal about the ‘how’ and ‘why’.

Why do they get it wrong?

But woe betides those meteorologists when they get the forecast wrong. Bizarrely, we seem to hold weather presenters and meteorologists personally responsible when forecast weather conditions don’t materialise exactly as predicted yet the weather and climate are a mystery to most people. We place all our faith in the forecast but then take strange delight in smugly reflecting upon how wrong the Bureau of Meteorology got it yet again; even when only by a degree in temperature.

This points to our fickle obsession with weather and yet for many people there is little understanding of weather and climate conditions and how they occur. We constantly ask, ‘Why do they get it wrong?’ What we fail to appreciate is the weather forecast is purely a forecast [prediction or estimation] and due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, error involved in measuring the initial conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes, forecasts become less accurate as the difference in time for which the forecast is being made increases.

We also fail to recognise the process of weather forecasting has improved immensely since it was first formalised in the mid to late 19th century, with greater collection of raw data, specialist knowledge and technological improvements. In response to widespread criticism about inaccurate forecasting, Dr Alan Thorpe (former head of the Met Office’s climate change arm), suggested the day-to-day broadcasts of local weather forecasts were too short and simple to properly explain anticipated weather conditions.

Informing  and educating the public

Expanding the traditional format may better educate the public about how atmospheric conditions develop and influence the weather they experience. Perhaps this is part of the problem manifesting itself in a public resistance to an informed debate about the science of climate change in Australia. It is hard to meaningfully debate something you don’t understand. Here is a short overview presented by meteorologist Dr. Karl Braganza, of how weather and climate conditions are monitored and predictions are made by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Understanding/State-of-the-Climate-2012.aspx

It is ironic that as our abilities to predict weather and climate improve, the weather is itself becoming less predictable with an increasing number of extreme weather events around the world attributed to long-term climate change. The video below provides an engaging explanation of the global climate system and links between recent extreme weather events. (Duration: 20 minutes)

‘Extreme Weather’, An episode of Catalyst, ABC Televison 2013

Planning for natural disasters

As well as informing our everyday decisions about whether (no pun intended) to wear a rain coat or cancel the school swimming carnival, being able to accurately predict the weather also underpins the effectiveness of service providers such as utility companies. For example knowing there is going to be an extended period of very hot weather enables them to manage day-to-day peak power supplies to homes over hot summers. And being able to predict short to long-term climate conditions has relevance for major infrastructure planning including strategic plans for state and nation-wide water supply as well as budget implications.

Weather forecasting is also crucial for mitigating the impact of extreme weather events. Just consider that climate and water-related hazards account for 90% of all natural disasters. Climate change scientists predict it will be developing nations which will face a greater number of extreme weather events in the future and yet they will be less equipped to either pre-empt or respond to these.

Professor Peter Webster of the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, attributes the disparity between the human impact of Cyclone Sandy (which hit the east coast of the US) in 2012 and those which hit developing nations, to planning which was made possible through accurate long-range weather forecasts (Webster, 2013). The difference is thousands of lives.

It is astonishing to consider that according to Webster, ‘while only 5% of tropical cyclones occur in the north Indian Ocean they account for 95% of such causalities worldwide’ (p. 17). They also have much less resilience and succeeding seasons of unpredictable weather conditions create ever-deepening impoverishment. The unpredictability of weather systems through climate change have undermined traditional weather forecasting knowledge and practices developed over hundreds of years leaving small-holder subsistence farmers at the ‘mercy of the heavens’. The spread of new technologies in poorer isolated districts can provide forewarning if an information-sharing network is in place but access remains patchy. (Herro 2011)

Webster cites the example of a pilot study demonstrating the advantages of timely forecasting in Bangladesh whose low-lying regions are regularly inundated by seasonal flooding. The UN estimated that weather warnings communicated to the community leaders of pilot areas ten days in advance of the 2007 and 2008 floods, allowed residents to harvest crops, lead cattle to safety and store water, food and personal belongings saved an average of US$400-500 dollars per household which is the average yearly income.

https://domesticsciences.wordpress.com/the-bits-that-didnt-fit/excerpt-from-p…climate-change/

‘The science is well ahead of our ability to implement it’

It seems a lack of resources is not only affecting meteorological offices in developing nations. Chief Scientist at the UK Met Office, Dr Julia Slingo suggested a lack of computing power (through supercomputers) due to limited funding was their biggest obstacle to creating better, hazard-relevant weather forecasts. In the journal Nature, she claimed, ‘The science is well ahead of our ability to implement it’, (Jones 2010). And so raw data is not the problem – the ability to analyse enough of it to ensure greater a greater degree of accuracy and certainty is, such as with Russia’s record drought which had a major impact upon global food security as the failure of Russian grain crops saw commodity prices soar.

Dr Slingo’s prayers have recently been answered with the UK Treasury committing to the purchase of a new supercomputer so the UK Met Office can develop ‘its world-class research base.’ Others suggest, however, even with all the computing power in the world someone still has to choose the best mathematical model and parameters for the computer to use in any given situation.

Some commentators go on to express a belief that climate science has become ‘state science’ pursuing a particular propagandist climate change agenda as opposed to a disinterested pursuit of knowledge. Hence they accuse such institutions as the UK Met Office as being committed to the wrong computer model and failing to update their climate assumptions; thus incapable of providing accurate weather forecasts and climate predictions. They use the past winter and current summer as clear evidence. [This alternative view published in The Spectator magazine can be read in full online. Similar commentary about the claimed 20% revision down of previous climate warming predictions by the UK Met Office can be found online at the home of the think-tank GWPF (Global Warming Policy Foundation); anthropogenic climate warming skeptics.]

weather-icons-header_JasiekKrzsytofiakNature

It seems likely we’ll become more obsessed by the weather in view of our climate becoming less predictable. Perhaps we should be giving meteorologists credit for being right so often given the limitation of resources and knowledge and the immense variability and unpredictability of weather patterns rather than threatening to sue them for ‘ruining’ our social events.
Furthermore, we can be grateful for simply having access to a weather forecast, especially within a changing climate. Being unable to predict the weather or access forecasts can have massive implications for human populations. It goes far beyond whether or not you pick up an umbrella as you head out the door in the morning. Weather forecasting is often a matter of life and death for millions of people around the world while long-range climate change prediction is about the survival of whole ecosystems and the life which comprises them.

Further Information:

More information about climate prediction for Australia can be found in the ‘State of the Climate 2012’ report accessed online. It provides a summary of observations of Australia’s climate and analysis of the factors that influence it. General climate information can be accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/

The following video (another from ABC Television’s science programme Catalyst) entertainingly looks at the last 100 years of Australia’s recorded weather to find out whether it has really changed. (First aired November 15, 2012) Catalyst: Taking Our Temperature – ABC TV Science.

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All in the mind …. the placebo effect (2/3)

placeboEffect

In a previous post on July 16, 2013, ‘All in the mind… the placebo effect’ I described the concept and origins of placebos and the placebo effect. This post shifts focus to the changing perception of placebos within the field of scientific research and clinical practice using published articles framed by counter arguments. The literature largely signals a growing interest in the use of placebos – not because researchers believe placebos have the power to trick the mind into healing the body but because there is an increasing body of research providing evidence linking chemical reactions in the brain to development of our expectations which moderate and influence our behaviour and perceptions. (Scott et al 2007)

[I have included a couple of short videos which entertainingly explore the placebo effect…. and so if you aren’t in the mood for reading, or short of time scroll straight down to the visual aids. Alternatively if you are in the mood for some interactive experience watch the video at the end and follow the accompanying link to test one person’s idea of the placebo effect through an app. I am by no means recommending the app as I have not tested it myself being still rather old fashioned when it comes to phones but it could be fun – and by all means let me know. ]

And now back to the topic at hand….

Placebos have been critical in the running of randomized clinical trials as a comparison marker.  As Kaptchuk writes in The Lancet (1998), Until the RCT, medical therapy became legitimate because of beneficial outcomes; after the RCT, a medical intervention was only scientifically acceptable if it was superior to placebo… method became more important than outcome’, (p. 1724). Critics also recommend that a third ‘no treatment’ control group is used to gauge the placebo effect.

In some cases, it has also been shown that well-established prescribed medical interventions are no more effective than a placebo (or perhaps I should say the placebo is no less effective) suggesting that the effectiveness of the branded product is probably only due to the placebo effect. This seems quite profound when considering our increasing consumption of drugs and ballooning expenditure in the over-burdened health system. To read of widely prescribed anti-depressants such as Prozac testing no better than a placebo seems shocking. And this is not to suggest the anti-depressants in question are just ‘sugar pills’ – just their ingredients are not active for that specific illness. A survey of General Practitioners in the US revealed that 50% regularly prescribed ‘placebos’. This raises another concern regarding the possible side effects of non-active medical inventions (whether a drug or procedure) with other active ingredients upon people’s health which could be avoided.

So how can any non-active treatment seemingly be so effective?

The scientific study of the placebo and nocebo effect is part of the exciting advances in modern neuroscience on the way in which the brain normally controls many bodily functions. We do know that this is mostly done by operating below conscious awareness’, writes  Marcello Costa, Professor of Neurophysiology, Department of Physiology at Flinders University.

(http://theconversation.com/mind-over-matter-the-ethics-of-using-the-placebo-effect-3752)

Animation: ‘The Strange Powers of the Placebo Effect’ from The Professor Funk.

The body of current research points to several factors underlying the placebo effect which are only now being unravelled through more extensive research and the use of such tools as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans to understand how the brain reacts to medical intervention. Between accumulated research findings and new MRI brain scans taken during testing as proof, it appears the ‘effectiveness’ of placebos which induce a sense of increasing wellbeing and also alleviate specific types of symptoms is linked to the opioid system. Researchers have found that placebo effects can stimulate real physiological responses, from changes in heart rate and blood pressure to chemical activity in the brain, in cases involving pain, depression, anxiety, fatigue, and even some symptoms of Parkinson’s disease.  From research in the late 1970s we have known the placebo effect is linked to the release of endorphins which are the brain’s ‘natural pain relievers’ when it was shown that blocking the release of endorphins removed the placebo effect (Feinberg 2013). We can be conditioned to release such chemical substances as endorphins, catecholamines, cortisol, and adrenaline. Telling research participants they will likely experience adverse effects from the placebo treatment also reliably leads to them reporting those same symptoms – this is called the nocebo effect.

Challengers to alternative medicine practitioners and those who believe it is purely a case of ‘positive thinking’ propose the placebo effect can be largely attributed to a mix of the following mechanisms;

  • Natural history where illnesses naturally peak and then taper off with recovery – patients usually seek medical treatment at the peak and so recovery correlates with treatment;
  • Regression to the mean (natural fluctuations in illnesses);
  • Standard medical and nursing care;
  • Impact of modified rest, diet, exercise and relaxation;
  • Reduction of anxiety by receiving a diagnosis and prescribed treatment;
  • Influence of the doctor-patient relationship (including the desire by trial participants to ‘give the right answer’);
  • Expectation of recovery; and
  • Classic conditioning (which on a very basic level refers to our learned belief associating medical intervention with recovery but can also be more complex).

It is, however, difficult to unravel and measure these often inter-dependent mechanisms, especially when their significance will naturally vary from patient to patient. (McCann et al 1992)

Studies have also found the placebo effect is influenced by the manner of the placebo delivery and these variables needs to be accounted for in trial results. It has been shown in the last decade that variables such as the form of placebo delivery (pill versus injection, or pill colour or size); demeanour of the placebo provider (level of verbal interaction, body language, perceived level of ‘care’,etc); framing of the procedure; aims and expectations to participants; physical environment (hospital versus standard room); and there are now even claims that individuals will be variously disposed towards the placebo effect dependent upon their genetic make-up (Furmark 2008).  There is also a recognised predisposition of participants to try to please with their responses which may skew results. Hence the push for a double-blind testing approach in trials to measure these influences.

Dean Leyson’s : The Placebo Effect (BTW if you can’t pick his accent, it’s Belgian)

Here is a list of placebo influencing factors:

  • trusted brand-name drugs work better than others;
  • expensive treatments work better than cheaper ones;
  • green pills may be better for phobias and anxiety;
  • red and yellow pills may work better for depression;
  • sham devices may work better for pain than pills;
  • treatments work better if administered by a practitioner perceived as being kind, warm and caring; and
  • in general, invasive treatments (eg. surgery, injections, procedures) seem to work better than less invasive ones.

The sense of recovery and healing people credit to alternative therapies is also attributed by sceptics to a placebo effect. For example a study undertaken by Harvard Medical School researchers demonstrated that of the participants suffering from Irritable Bowel Syndrome those who experienced the greatest alleviation of discomfort had who received the most attention and care in  the form of pretend acupuncture and non-active medication. All participants received fake treatment but were either given a minimal or high level of attention and interaction from those administering the treatments.

Numerous studies have demonstrated the placebo effect can be a significant factor in people’s sense of recovery – even if this is subjective on the part of the patient rather than an objective reduction in illness. This is why a growing number of researchers and medical practitioners believe placebos should no longer be wholly defined by their inert content/ attribute. Focus should be shifted to what the, ‘placebo intervention – consisting of a simulated treatment and the surrounding clinical context – is actually doing to the patient. Accumulated evidence suggests that the placebo effect is a genuine psychobiological event attributable to the overall therapeutic context,’ (Finniss et al 2010, p. 686). Thinking about this and the evidence of the placebo effect for pain relief, I wondered whether there was a role for the placebo in palliative care where it would perhaps raise less ethical issues. Something I will discuss in my final post on the placebo effect… to come.

In a US study involving asthma sufferers, it was shown the placebo had little effect on the measurable physical outcome of lung function (equal to the ‘no treatment’ control group) measured through lung capacity testing; versus the administration of a standard albuterol bronchodilator. However, the participants themselves reported improvements in terms of relieving discomfort and self-described asthma symptoms equal to albuterol.  This supports the theory a ‘subjective’ placebo effect exists and that a placebo treatment may be just as effective as active medication in improving patient-centred outcomes.  ‘It’s clear that for the patient, the ritual of treatment can be very powerful,’ notes Kaptchuk. ‘This study suggests that in addition to active therapies for fixing diseases, the idea of receiving care is a critical component of what patients value in health care. In a climate of patient dissatisfaction, this may be an important lesson.

Here’s how to administer your own placebo effect…. but at your own risk…

Website: Placebo Effect – A Beginner’s Guide    http://www.placeboeffect.com/placebo-effect/

[NB having read the webpage and various blog posts of the app’s creator I have to say I don’t endorse much of what is written… a little too much ‘feel good’ content which in my opinion doesn’t accurately reflect scientific research despite using it to support their advocacy of the placebo effect… and business idea]

And here’s your very last little pill …    There is also a published study (Furmark 2008) which claims to have found a certain variation of a gene linked to the release of dopamine which makes the individual far more susceptible to the sham treatment and therefore also the placebo effect. The ability to screen prospective trial participants based upon a lower susceptibility to the placebo effect is argued for on the basis of creating more efficient medical trials, reducing the time and costs of testing and therefore getting effective treatments onto the market faster and more cheaply to benefit patients.

Some recommended further reading:

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/placebos-st-johns-wort-and-regular-medication-in/3510770#transcript

http://theconversation.com/not-just-smoke-and-mirrors-placebos-place-in-modern-medicine-4587

A third and final post will discuss contrary views and ethical considerations attached to the administration of placebos. Did you know placebos are still regularly ‘prescribed’ by GPs here and overseas?

Until next time,

the domestic scientist.

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All in the mind…. the placebo effect

LanceArmstrong

Placebo – Drug of Champions?

Could infamous cycling champion, Lance Armstrong, have done so well if his ‘drug of choice’ had been a placebo?  I pose the question because it may not be as ludicrous as it sounds according to research by Italian neuroscientist Dr Fabrizio Benedetti. Although with hindsight, believing Armstrong was so successful without assistance seems just as ludicrous.

Most people have probably heard of ‘the placebo effect’. This is a term I seem to be hearing with more regularity and recently I have begun to wonder if it has become just another fashionable, catchy saying; likely misunderstood and misapplied but used nevertheless because it sounds edgy and knowledgeable.

There also seems to have been a cultural change in attitude towards the framing of placebos. This may be due in large part to increasing distrust of prescription medications and the appeal of the idea of non-intrusive healing through ‘positive thinking’ or of ‘mind over matter’; especially when the terminally ill and their loved ones are desperately looking for a cure where conventional treatments no longer give any hope.  Guess et al (2002) also note a shift in the bio-medical research field and among medical practitioners, describing the placebo as, ‘transformed in a few short years from a sham in medical practice and a control agent in clinical trials to a therapeutic ally’, (p.1).

To most lay people I think ‘the placebo effect’ is commonly understood in reference to patients taking a ‘pretend medication’ (placebo) but when believing it to be real attest to a physical response to the ‘medication’ – which may be either positive or adverse. This is how I would have explained the placebo effect if asked but I was by no means sure I understood the phrase properly either. Are people really misinformed when they think the placebo effect points to an ability of the mind to enhance the body’s ability to overcome physical ills? It is certainly an appealing concept and one which can seem more reasonable when we are forever being told how little we truly understand the workings (or unmapped potential) of the human brain.

And so sensing I was on shaky ground in my own understanding of the placebo effect I decided to make it the topic of a couple of blog-posts and I discovered there are a number of interesting perspectives to discuss.

So here goes…. a brief history on the origins of the placebo…. (and its effect).

The term ‘placebo’ comes from the Latin verb ‘placare’ which means ‘to please’ (as opposed to ‘nocebo’ which means ‘to harm’). Although ‘placebo’ started to be used in English during the 13th century, it wasn’t part of medical terminology until the late 18th century. A medical dictionary from 1811 defined the term as ‘any medicine adapted more to please than benefit the patient’ which reflects the practice of doctors of the time to give some patients placebos in the form of bread or starch pills because they had little confidence in the efficacy of their ‘real’ range of medications. Doctors would also prescribe ‘sub therapeutic doses’ of ‘pharmacologically active drugs’ (Edward 2005, p.1023) in order to satisfy those patients who were simply looking for the process of treatment and possibly to protect their authoritative standing.

Generally, a placebo is an inert substance with no inherent pharmacological activity, and looking, smelling and tasting like the real drug being used. An ‘active placebo’ may be used which is one possessing its own inherent effects but which don’t apply to the condition for which it is being prescribed.  A placebo may also be a procedure rather than drugs or medication. This can be quite extreme extending to placebo surgery where a patient is anaesthetised and ‘superficial procedures’ including skin incision are performed without surgery being undertaken (Rajagopal 2006). I have been wondering if the previously mentioned ‘placebo surgery’ is a treatment or a component of clinical trials. Either use is somewhat hard to fathom and points to much of the current debate surrounding the ethics of using placebos through deception, although technically participants in clinical trials must be made aware that they may receive a placebo rather than the active drug or real procedure.

The phrase ‘the placebo effect’ has been attributed to American anaesthetist Henry K. Beecher in his work, ‘the powerful placebo’ (1955), when he reported that, on average, a third of his patients with a range of medical complaints improved when taking placebos. Rajagopal (2006) claims this then led to the use of placebos in the establishment of randomized control trials (RCT) where ‘active drugs’ are tested against placebos rather than no treatment which Edwards (2005) suggests, ‘implicitly assumes that the placebo itself exerts an effect’ although not of a pharmacological nature (p.1023).

In the next blog-post I will identify current opposing (as well as overlapping) views of researchers about the application of placebos, including a case study, and return to make sense of the question first posed by this post: Could Lance Armstrong have done so well if his ‘drug of choice’ had been a placebo?

References:

Edwards, M 2005, ‘Placebo’, The Lancet, vol. 365, pp 1023.

Guess, HA, Kleinman, A, Kusek, JW, Engel, LW 2002, The Science of the Placebo, BMJ Books, London.

Rajagopal, S 2006, ‘The placebo effect’, The Psychiatrist, vol. 30, pp 185-188.

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